
Global production is forecast nearly 2 percent higher in 2025 to a record 104.9 million tons. Production gains are forecast for most countries with the largest increases expected for China, the United States, Turkey, the EU, Brazil, and Mexico. Expansion is supported by a modest improvement in feed prices and on consumer demand spurred by economic growth. A significant production increase in China will enable its return to being the world’s largest producer. China demand will be generated primarily from white broilers as producers respond to demand drivers and as consumers may substitute broiler meat in place of pork.
China yellow broiler production, mainly sold in wet markets, will remain stagnant. Turkish production is forecast to rise on stable domestic demand and increased shipments as government exports restrictions are lifted. Brazil’s record high forecast is supported by strong foreign demand and lower expected production costs.
Global exports are forecast 2 percent higher in 2025 to a record 13.8 million tons following relatively
stagnant trade in 2023 and 2024. Economic growth is expected to drive moderate consumption growth as chicken remains a lower-cost animal protein which appeals to middle-income consumers. While all major exporters (Brazil, the United States, the EU, and Thailand) will post gains, Brazil will capture the largest share of growth as it is able to service and be price-competitive in the largest growth markets (Mexico, Saudi Arabia, Singapore, the UAE, and the UK). Reductions in highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI)-related restrictions will support increased EU exports to various markets although the UK will remain the largest market for the EU. Thailand exports will be supported by growth in cooked chicken, particularly to the EU, Japan, and the UK.
Access to full report: https://apps.fas.usda.gov/psdonline/circulars/livestock_poultry.pdf